733 FXUS61 KCAR 142310 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 710 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 645 PM UPDATE: BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY...WE MOVED UP THE TMG OF INCREASING CLD CVR BY 2 TO 3 HRS BY USING THE TIME SHIFT TOOL. OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS TO OVRNGT LOWS WERE UPDATE BASED ON TRENDS NOTED FROM 5 AND 6 PM OBS FROM THE PREV FCST TEMPS AT THESE HRS. LASTLY...HI AND LOW TEMPS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST BEYOND SAT WERE UPDATED TO INCLUDE BETTER (COOLER)...MORE REALISTIC HI TRRN TEMPS. ALSO HI TEMPS OVR LOWER TRRN ON SUN AND MON WERE BUMPED UP BY TWO DEG F BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE... DOWNSLOPE WSW WINDS N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND FCST MAX 925MB TEMPS OF LOW AND MID 20S DEG C...RESPECTFULLY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CULMINATE WITH HI TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY BROAD VLY LCTNS ON MON...EVEN SO...WE ARE STILL INDICATING A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS WITH THIS UPDATE. ORGNL DISC: MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS TO OUR WEST IN QUEBEC THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER, BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN ALL NIGHT FOR THE NORTH (CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT) WITH 30-40 POPS. MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S. THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO CENTRAL/INTERIOR DOWNEAST FOR SATURDAY AND GOING WITH LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES THERE. DYNAMICS AREN'T GREAT, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE A FEW PUSHING STRONG LEVELS INTERIOR DOWNEAST/CENTRAL, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE AND OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW. NORTH OF THE FRONT IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE, JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND 80. THE WARMEST TEMPS COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE GFS AND THE NAM APPEAR TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS SO HAVE USED A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS FOR QPF... SKY AND POPS. BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL HAS BEST RECORD FOR MAXIMUM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SO WILL USE THIS GUIDANCE BUT WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE MONDAY BY 2 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH DOWN SLOPE FLOW EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH AN ELONGATED 500MB RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GEFS AND ECMWF CAMPS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE BIGGEST SPREAD COMING ON A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW...DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE TIMING ON KEY PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AS THE REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD RIDGE. BETWEEN HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY FROM KHUL NORTH. TENTATIVELY EXPECTING VFR DOWNEAST TONIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY. GENERALLY VFR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH PERIOD OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR DOWNEAST/CENTRAL WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF NAM12 AND GFS40 WHICH APPEAR MOST CONSISTENT. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE LONG PERIOD WAVE GROUP (AROUND 2 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) COMING IN FROM ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SECONDARY LOCAL WIND WAVE TO PRODUCE COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 3 FEET. TO CAPTURE RESOLUTION ALONG COASTLINE WILL USE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON GRIDED WINDS AND USING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FROM WAVE WATCH III. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE/DUMONT AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE