901 FXUS61 KCAR 221958 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 358 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE NEAR TERM. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTH AND MID AND UPPER 50S DOWN EAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 70S DOWN EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF MAINE DURING THE SHORT TERM AS A SHORTWAVE FROM QUEBEC DIGS SWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS OUR FCST AREA. THIS FRONT...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAKE PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY SHWRS LINGERING FROM THE PREV UPPER LOW WILL DEPART EARLY SAT NIGHT, BUT SOME SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY START WORKING IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CHC POPS IN THE RURAL NW BY 12Z. GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE, THOUGH GFS IS RUNNING ABOUT 6HRS AHEAD OF THE EC WITH THE 12Z RUNS. SHWRS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE BY SUN PM, WITH LKLY POPS IN NORTH- CENTRAL AND NW AREAS, AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE CWA. CHC OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH TSTMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MON PM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. BEYOND 00Z TUE, THE FCST BECOMES A LOT LESS CERTAIN, WITH MORE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN MODELS AS THE GFS IS SLOWER TO PUSH OUT THE UPPER TROUGH. THAT MIGHT KEEP SOME SHWRS INTO THE AREA INTO TUE, SO I DID MAINTAIN LOW-END CHC POPS FOR NOW. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPS LATER TUE INTO WED...OF COURSE, GIVEN HOW THIS SUMMER IS GOING, WARMER JUST MEANS NEAR NORMAL... MODELS DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH GFS BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE CWA BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST 12 HRS SLOWER. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ON THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA BY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA SHORT TERM...BERDES LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...DUDA/BERDES MARINE...DUDA/BERDES