269 FXUS64 KBMX 202050 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 350 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE ISOLATED TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAY BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS TENNESSEE AND NE ALABAMA MAY SLIDE IN. HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ONE MORE DAY TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WILL BE BORDERLINE ON CRITERIA BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA. AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND INCREASED CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES LOWER BUT AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER US TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. TOMORROW A WEAK IMPULSE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE A WEAK BOUNDARY ALSO TRIES TO MOVE IN...WHILE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND MEAN MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEST OF THE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH. THEREFORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ALSO INCREASES A TAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES SOMEWHAT SO CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP. 32/DAVIS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOT DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS PREVIOUS DAYS... BUT WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS MAY BE AT KMGM AND KTOI. 87/GRANTHAM && .FIRE WEATHER... CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 75 95 73 91 72 / 20 30 30 40 30 ANNISTON 73 94 73 91 72 / 20 30 20 40 30 BIRMINGHAM 77 95 75 92 75 / 10 30 20 40 30 TUSCALOOSA 76 96 75 95 75 / 10 20 20 40 30 CALERA 76 94 74 91 74 / 10 20 20 40 30 AUBURN 74 93 74 92 74 / 20 30 20 40 30 MONTGOMERY 76 96 75 95 76 / 10 30 20 40 30 TROY 74 96 74 95 74 / 20 40 20 40 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB- BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE- COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR- LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS-PIKE- RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TALLAPOOSA- TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON. && $$