019 FXUS64 KBMX 201249 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 749 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2015 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY. CONVECTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IS BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM ANYWHERE. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 90S...AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO AND UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY RETREAT WESTWARD. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR EXTREME HEAT INDICES FOR A LITTLE WHILE. HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO COVER MOST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF TO THE WEST AND WE ARE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY PRESENT...DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 90S AND SOME WEAK IMPULSES PASSING THROUGH...RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO GO UP. NOT GOING ANY HIGHER THAN 60 PERCENT ON ANY OF THE DAYS JUST YET BUT SOME OF THOSE AFTERNOONS COULD BE RATHER WET. WILL HAVE TO FINE TUNE THAT AS WE GO ALONG AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 88 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT MVFR FOG IS ONGOING FOR SITES CLOSE TO BODIES OF WATER AND NEAR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THAT FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CU CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE PLACED VCTS IN THE TAF FOR KMGM AND KTOI THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST UNDER 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID INTO MONDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 96 75 95 75 92 / 20 10 30 20 40 ANNISTON 95 74 94 74 92 / 20 10 20 20 40 BIRMINGHAM 97 77 96 77 93 / 20 10 20 20 40 TUSCALOOSA 100 76 98 76 96 / 10 10 20 20 40 CALERA 95 77 94 76 92 / 20 10 20 20 40 AUBURN 94 74 93 74 92 / 40 10 30 20 40 MONTGOMERY 97 76 96 77 95 / 30 10 30 20 40 TROY 95 74 95 74 95 / 40 10 40 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB- BULLOCK-CHILTON-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE- JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PICKENS- PIKE-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN- CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-LEE-MARION-RANDOLPH- TALLAPOOSA-WINSTON. && $$