000 
FXUS63 KUNR 190144
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
744 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
OUT TO THE CHEYENNE RIVER. UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA...WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...THEN UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES THROUGH CA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING NEWD THROUGH
THE RIDGE INTO CO/WY. AT THE SFC...HIGH COVERS THE NRN ROCKIES
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA OR TWO FROM NERN WY INTO
SWRN SD AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...BUT MLCAPE IS MINIMAL AND NOTHING SVR EXPECTED. ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD WITH RATHER STRONG JET STREAK
LIFTING THROUGH WY INTO WRN SD BY LATE IN THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM JET ENERGY
SHOULD ALLOW A FEW -TSRA TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVER PARTS OF WY
INTO THE BLKHLS AND SWRN SD...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2000J/KG
POSSIBLE. SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
STRONG/SVR STORM OR TWO. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SRN SD GIVEN POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND
CONTINUED JET ENERGY OVERHEAD...AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

JET STREAK SHIFTS EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA OVER THE BLKHLS.
ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT PER THE NAM (CANADIAN IS
FASTER AND GFS IS SLOWER). THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING. NEVERTHELESS...THE LLJ SHOULD BRING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS SHOULD PRODUCE MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. THE NET RESULT WILL BE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK-TO-MODERATE SO DO
EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

FROM EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT 
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE STRONGEST WESTERLIES OVER THE PAC 
NORTHWEST (AND ACROSS MT). THIS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM UP A BIT AND 
KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE TROUGH 
WILL SHIFT EAST LATER FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA 
REACHING NWRN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...7
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...BUNKERS
AVIATION...7