183 FXUS61 KRLX 111812 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 212 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW THRU NEXT WEEK...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MUCH OF THE DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. AREA IS QUITE WET FROM SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING...BUT TO MENTION IT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS LOOKS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN THE QPF FIELD...BRINGING THE BULK OF PCPN ALONG AND WEST OF THE OH RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY. THE FLOW AT H500 REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING A SERIES OF VORT MAXES INTO THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PCPN AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...ADJUSTED LIKELY POPS USING A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY WILL BE MONDAY WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THIS WET ENVIRONMENT...AND NEARLY SATURATED TERRAIN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...WILL KEEP MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR WATER PROBLEMS AS WELL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...MINOR CHANGES NOTED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... USING A BLEND OF NAM AND MEX NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE ECMWF MODEL DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STACK WITH HEIGHT...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV AND SOUTHEAST OH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITION CAN BE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSING A THREAT FOR FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO GET BETTER CONFIDENCE WITH THIS EVENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SHOW A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. USED WPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STORM WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 23Z...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 04Z. MVFR RIVER VALLEY MIST/FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN AFTER 05Z. CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM BECOMING IFR. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS...SHOULD COMBINE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BY 08Z. ANY FOG/MIST THAT DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE... WITH MOST...IF NOT ALL...LOCATIONS SEEING VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEING SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AFT 14Z...WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS AFT 16Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT. AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ NEAR TERM...JSH/ARJ SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...JSH