912 FXUS65 KTFX 111605 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1005 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT RADAR RETURNS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS. EXPECT THIS AREA TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND PUSH NORTH AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 1000Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. SHORT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRUSDA && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015 TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT AND DRIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. THE EFFECT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES BEING EJECTED FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION AT TIMES OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY. MPJ MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EC MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM TONIGHT...BUT EXACT TIMING DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT...NO PARTICULAR DAY LOOKS TO HAVE AN ALL DAY RAINFALL...BUT BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST ANY PROLONGED DRY PERIODS AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND..WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BRUSDA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 77 61 82 56 / 50 20 20 10 CTB 83 58 80 53 / 70 30 10 10 HLN 77 60 83 59 / 50 30 30 10 BZN 81 53 80 53 / 40 30 40 20 WEY 70 42 70 41 / 30 30 30 20 DLN 77 53 77 52 / 50 30 40 30 HVR 86 60 89 56 / 60 40 30 20 LWT 79 56 81 55 / 50 20 30 20 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS