089 
FXUS65 KBOI 092053
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
253 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE
AREA. GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST AND
TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE
AREA NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN
STORM THREAT BUT NOT RULING OUT STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD NEVADA. BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SHOULD LIMIT STORM
INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE FULL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
SOUTH HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BUT EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND IMPACT THE MAGIC AND TREASURE VALLEYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. AREAL COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER
MOVES CLOSER. HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN FRIDAY BUT IF
CLOUD COVER BECOMES EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING IT
COULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY BUT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FOR CONTINUED CHANCE
OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH NORTHERN AREAS FAVORED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF 
OF THE PACNW COAST IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER 
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY 
MONDAY...THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES INLAND AND DYNAMICS FAVORING 
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. 
THIS THREAT WILL BE MONITORED AND POTENTIAL EXTRA WORDING IN THE 
FORECAST WILL BE ADDED IF NEEDED...BUT FOR NOW A CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR TUESDAY 
AND BEYOND...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP THROUGH AT 
LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL 
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL.
 
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 
SUNSET...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE 
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KTS AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY NEAR 
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS. 
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...VARIABLE 10-15KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM....EP/WH
AVIATION.....EP