587 FXUS63 KILX 281934 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 1007 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IA WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN WI...EASTERN MN AND INTO NE IA AND NW IL. 12Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING SE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL BY 06Z/1 AM TONIGHT. ALREADY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IL AT MID AFTERNOON AS FAR SE AS I-70 FROM WEAKENING MCS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS GETS MORE UNSTABLE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF. CONVECTION TO THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF IL INTO INDIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FROM PEORIA TO LINCOLN TO SHELBVILLE SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING FOR 15% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AND 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. AREAS SW OF WINCHESTER IN SW SCOTT COUNTY HAS AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WHERE UP TO 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL. INSTABILITY ELEVATES A BIT TO 1000-1600 J/KG SW CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOME HEATING AS CLOUDS BREAK UP FOR A TIME (ALREADY HAPPENING FROM I-55 WEST) WITH WEAKENING MCS OVER CENTRAL IL. MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER MO WHERE CAPES PEAK FROM 2-3K J/KG. THE BULK SHEAR IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 35-40 KTS SW OF I-74 AND THE BULK SHEAR IS ALSO STRONGER SW OVER MO WHERE 40-50 KTS. SO THE BIGGER SEVERE WX THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WILL BE OVER MO AND SW IL. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS NW OF THE IL RIVER. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 LITTLE IN OVERALL LONG-WAVE PATTERN CHANGE FORECASTED BY MODELS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RIDGE REMAINING FROM THE ROCKIES WEST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH SHUNTED AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT WITH SHORT-WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH. MODELS OFTEN HAVE PROBLEMS FORECASTING THESE TYPE OF WAVES MORE THAN A FEW DAYS OUT AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BROADBRUSH MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF RAIN EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT HEAVY RAIN MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME AN ISSUE WED-FRI AS 12Z GFS PRECIP WATER APPROACHES 2 INCHES AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY. AS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE WAVE NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL TEMPORARILY SHUNT DEEP MOISTURE EAST OF ILLINOIS. STILL MAY BE SOME RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY...BUT COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN THEY HAVE BEEN TODAY OR LAST WEEK. WITH TROUGH IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 A WEAKENING MCS OVER SE IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL IS TRACKING ESE INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY MOVING THROUGH SPI. DEC WILL GET SKIRTED BY THIS CONVECTION IN NEXT HOUR WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINS. MEANWHILE BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED INTO MID AFTERNOON ALONG I-74 (PIA...BMI AND CMI). MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN IA AND NE MO AHEAD OF 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL IL AND TRACK SE INTO WEST CENTRAL IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL IL DURING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS IN HEAVIER RAINS TO CENTRAL IL THOUGH MOST OF THE TIME WILL STILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW QPF PASSING SHIFTING EAST OF CENTRAL IL BETWEEN 03-07Z FROM WEST TO EAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING AFTER 15Z/MON. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO VEER NNW 5-9 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ILLINOIS FROM HAVANA DOWNSTREAM. RIVER LEVELS HAVE CRESTED FROM HENRY TO PEROIA AND SHOULD VERY SLOWLY FALL THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...LEVELS WILL STILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM HAVANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK. LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT WITHIN A FOOT OF RECORD LEVELS AT LAGRANDE...MERIDOSA...AND BEARDSTOWN. INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER FROM MASON AND FULTON COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...BARKER AVIATION...07 HYDROLOGY...BARKER