630 FXUS66 KLOX 270024 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 525 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 2015 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AT THE COAST. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH PWATS UP ABOUT A QUARTER INCH FROM YESTERDAY. THIS BRINGS THEM CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THESE NUMBERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES THAT WOULD HELP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO ERN LA COUNTY MTNS SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST MONDAY WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5". VIRTUALLY ALL THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE 700 MB AND PRETTY DRY BELOW THAT. MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, ADDING IN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY SUNDAY DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG SOUTH STEERING FLOW THAT WOULD FORCE ANY MTN DEVELOPMENT NORTH INTO THE AV. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE LYR DEPTH OR COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH HIGHS SAT DOWN 1-3 FROM TODAY ON AVERAGE. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ALOFT LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT SOME SIGNIFICANT MARINE LYR MIXING WILL LIKELY OCCUR MAKING THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST TRICKY, ESPECIALLY S OF PT CONCEPTION. WILL GO WITH A GENERIC PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST ALL AREAS STARTING SUNDAY GIVEN THE VARYING MIX OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES START REBOUNDING BACK UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN EXPANDS WEST AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL START A SLIGHT WARMING TREND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MONSOON MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA BUT PWATS EXPECTED TO PEAK MON/TUE. AGAIN NOTHING TO REALLY HANG OUR HAT ON IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING AT LEAST THROUGH WED. 850 DEWPOINTS DO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 7C AND 9C TUE/WED SO THERE'S A LITTLE MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THU AND FRI BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW PROBABLY THE BEST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING IN WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE SO WE COULD SEE A RAMP UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR COOLING SLIGHTLY WED-FRI. && .AVIATION...27/0020Z. AT 2327Z...THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS 900 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2300 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT KSBP AND KSMX TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY LIFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT KSBA... KOXR...KLAX AND KLGB WITH THE ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 02Z AND KLAX TO 09Z AT KLGB...AND PERSISTING THRU LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THERE IS ALSO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KPRB EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU SAT AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON. KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD FROM ABOUT 02Z-20Z. THE TIMING OF THE ONSET AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SAT EVENING. KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SAT AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...26/200 PM. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO SAN NICOLAS ISLAND AND TO SANTA CATALINA ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY ONE NAUTICAL MILE OR LESS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...SIRARD MARINE...HALL SYNOPSIS...SUKUP WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES