458 
FXUS64 KBMX 011506
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SIDE
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR HAS SPREAD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-59. 500MB TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER AND SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A VARIETY OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
THE NORTHERN SITES (KBHM KEET KANB KASN KTCL) ARE BOUNCING AROUND
A BIT BETWEEN IFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KMGM
AND KTOI) BOTH HAVE PERSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING TO VFR BY 15-16Z AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH ACTIVITY MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE VCTS MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS AND COULD SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF TSRA BEING ADDED TO A
FEW LOCATIONS LATER THIS MORNING.

05/MA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENTLY...NOT MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST. NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
EAST. ENHANCED ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE PAST SUNSET AS PIECES OF
ENERGY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. 

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK...LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. EXACT SPEED AND TRACK WILL DICTATE
WHERE THE BEST POPS LINE UP EACH PERIOD...WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST SEVERAL PERIODS IN ADVANCE. GENERALLY...THE EASTERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MID
WEEK. BY THURSDAY...MODELS TAKE THE LOW INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH
DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENS OVER THE CAROLINAS AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENSURE DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND AS WE HEAD INTO
JUNE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ELIMINATE ALL MENTION OF RAIN GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR
ONE OR TWO STORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE...AND TO WHAT EXTENT IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND IT WILL AID IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY.
MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A
TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY-TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD
FURTHER ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     82  63  81  63  83 /  60  30  40  20  40 
ANNISTON    82  64  81  64  82 /  60  40  50  30  40 
BIRMINGHAM  83  65  82  64  83 /  60  30  40  20  30 
TUSCALOOSA  85  65  84  65  85 /  50  30  20  20  20 
CALERA      83  65  82  64  83 /  60  30  40  20  30 
AUBURN      84  66  82  66  83 /  60  40  50  30  40 
MONTGOMERY  85  67  85  66  86 /  70  40  50  30  30 
TROY        85  66  84  66  85 /  60  40  50  30  40 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$