160 
FXUS64 KLCH 202358
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
658 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA WILL BE SLOWING AS WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AEX LATE TNITE WITH MVFR CIG/VIS WITH
LIGHT FOG. BY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH BPT
AND LCH WITH MVFR CIG/VIS AT LCH...IFR CIG/MVFR VIS AT BPT.

TEMPS SHOULD PUNCH THROUGH TRIGGER LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY AT BPT
AND THE ACADIANA TERMINALS LFT AND ARA. DUE TO HIGH PRECIP WATER
AND K-INDICIES WILL GO TEMPO IFR IN HEAVY RAIN WITH THE TSTMS.
FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH AT LCH WITH VFR CIGS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/ 

DISCUSSION...
LATEST VIS SAT & RADAR SHOWS ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SE TX/SW LA
THIS AFTERNOON...FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECAYING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...THEN DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. 

FOR THU...THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING COOL FRONT THAT WILL LIKLEY STALL OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST. BEST CHANCES AROUND 40-50% ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR FRI...STALLED FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT N...RESUMING S TO SE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN THE FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR SHRA/TSRA...AGAIN RANGING FROM 30-50%. BY SAT...MAIN CHANCES
OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA-BREEZE/BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS BEING THE PRIMARY FOCUS.

FOR SUN...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PROVIDE INCREASED LIFT. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
ALREADY ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL YIELD BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA
BY SUN AFTERNOON FOR SE TX...AND AREAWIDE FOR MON & TUE.

DML

MARINE...
S TO SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 2-3 FT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES
ALOFT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  81  63  81 /  30  50  20  30 
LCH  73  85  68  83 /  20  50  20  40 
LFT  72  86  68  84 /  20  50  20  50 
BPT  72  85  70  83 /  20  50  30  30 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11