838 FXUS62 KFFC 202342 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 742 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .EVENING UPDATE... UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO NW AL IS SPARKING CONVECTION THERE... WITH ONGOING CONVECTION STILL NOTED ACROSS EAST AND SE AL. THESE STORMS MAY PUSH INTO THE COLUMBUS AREA BY 9 PM... BUT EXPECT SOME WEAKENING... SO MAY BE MOSTLY SHOWERS. THE GREATER CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WHERE HAS BETTER UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPORT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY STILL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NW GA BETWEEN 9-10 PM... THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 2-3 AM THU MORNING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35-40MPH OR SO. WILL UP POPS OVER THE NW ZONES AS GET MORE CONFIDENT THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER... BUT OTHERWISE... THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK. 39 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... /ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/ MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE AND SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A WEAK TRANSLATED SFC LOW. WHILE SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS HOLDING TOGETHER AND PUSHING INTO WEST GA...SOME PREVIOUS RAP SOLUTIONS SUPPORTED IT AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ESPECIALLY IF SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE FORCING COMES TO AID. THIS MAY RESULT IN UPPING POPS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. STILL SOME MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND DECENT DCAPE IN PLACE. IF ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT CAN MUSTER...THERE COULD STILL BE STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS EVEN THOUGH IT IS A SHEAR DEPRIVED ENVIRONMENT. KEEPING BEST CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE. PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE GOOD DRYING OF THE COLUMN FOR THURSDAY AND NOW BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS NOW TO ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOOKING TO STAY TOO DRY AND STABLE. WINDS LOOK TO BE KICKING IN WITH THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. WHILE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO STAY A BIT BELOW CRITERIA...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS FOR ANY FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WITH ALREADY DRY FUELS /THOUGH MAY BE ALTERED WITH AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES/. TEMPS THURSDAY LOOK TO HAVE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NW TO THE LOW 90S SE. BAKER .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/ HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST LONG TERM MODELS HINT AT A MORE PROMINENT SURFACE HIGH KEEPING MOISTURE TO THE WEST LARGELY AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA AT RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STORM. HAVE SCALED POPS BACK SOMEWHAT AS A RESULT. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015/ LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS A BIT DRIER AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID WESTERN STATES BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STAYS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AND KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS IN THE FORECAST DAYS 3-5. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A BERMUDA LIKE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT INSTABILITIES INCREASING A BIT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH PWS SO WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS DAYS 6 AND 7. 01 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 02-06Z THU... WITH MID LEVEL CIGS EXPECTED BY 01-02Z. MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT ATL AROUND 09-15Z THU MORNING. THESE SHOULD SCT BY 15Z THU WITH FEW-SCT050 EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON. WINDS MAINLY WNW 3-6 KTS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS BY 15-16Z THU WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS EXPECTED BY 16-18Z THU. THE GUSTS SHOULD END BY 00-02Z FRI. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON LATE EVENING CONVECTION BEING THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CIGS BY 09Z. HIGH ON ALL ELSE. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 66 85 56 81 / 20 10 10 5 ATLANTA 67 80 58 80 / 30 10 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 61 74 48 74 / 30 20 10 5 CARTERSVILLE 64 79 53 79 / 30 10 5 5 COLUMBUS 70 88 61 84 / 10 10 10 5 GAINESVILLE 65 80 55 78 / 30 10 10 5 MACON 67 89 59 85 / 20 10 10 5 ROME 65 77 52 79 / 40 10 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 65 83 54 81 / 20 10 5 5 VIDALIA 71 92 65 86 / 30 20 10 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM....31 AVIATION...BAKER