367 FXUS61 KCLE 201734 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 134 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE FROM OKLAHOMA WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE STRATOCUMULUS IS SLOW IN CLEARING. CONCERNED THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA BEFORE THE LOW CLOUDS CAN CLEAR. BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND SLOW TO DEVELOP. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD TOO. LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY. EXTENDED CLOUD COVER HAS PROHIBITED MUCH RISE. WILL GO WITH MID 50S AT MOST WITH UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 AT THE LAKESHORE. A SPRINKLE MAY SNEAK INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR TOWARD EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND BETTER UPWARD MOTION ARRIVES. THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME OVER COMING THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COULD CLIP THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND BOWLING GREEN TO BUCYRUS AND MOUNT VERNON EARLY TONIGHT BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW SHEARS AS IT MOVES EAST. LOWS GENERALLY FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER/MID 40S EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. A TOUCH OF FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES PA. NOT SURE HOW MANY CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY. I SUSPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND THERE MAY BE SOME CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT CLOUDY. PARTLY CLOUDY IS PROBABLY THE BEST FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH JET SUPPORT ALTHOUGH WE REMAIN IN THE TROUGH ALOFT. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. THE AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH UPWARD MOTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/SPRINKLE IN THE SNOWBELT BUT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT. DRY OTHERWISE INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FROST IN THE COLDER SPOTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. AFTER A CHILLY START...HIGHS ON SATURDAY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TRANSLATES TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST TO THE EAST COAST IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. AS HIGH MOVES EAST...CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HEAD RIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SERIES OF POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHER FACTOR WILL BE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR IF CLOUDS REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STILL SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES FROM KMFD TO KCAK TO KYNG. HAVE PLACED A TEMPO AT THESE LOCATIONS AS WE AWAIT THE DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNSET BUT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY BUT REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS A RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THE KFDY AND KMFD AREAS. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO LOW END VFR FOR A FEW HOURS IF THE LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... LAKE ERIE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT FORCING WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AS WAVES SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...LAKE REMAINS RATHER QUIET GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN SHORT TERM...KOSARIK LONG TERM...LOMBARDY AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...LOMBARDY