848 FXUS61 KCLE 200110 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 910 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND ELEVATE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A WEAK TROUGH DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT MAY TRIGGER SOME SPRINKLES SO WILL ADD MENTION OF THESE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE SNOWBELT AREA. RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE IN RETURNS OVER LERI DURING THE PAST HOUR. SOME CLEARING WAS TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE FAR NW BUT FOR THE MOMENT THE HOLES WERE FILLING BACK IN SO THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS REMAINS JUST WEST OF LUCAS CO. EVENTUALLY THE BREAKS SHOULD WIN OUT AND PUSH ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW PART OF THE AREA. CIRRUS HAS BEEN SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HAS PUSHED INTO THE LMIC/IL/NW INDIANA AREA. SOME OF THIS CIRRUS WILL GET INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT CONCERNED WHETHER THE CIRRUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP LOW TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NW. THE LATEST LAV GUIDANCE HOLD TEMPS AT TOL AT 40 OVERNIGHT SO THINK A LOW OF 37 SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH. WILL ADD MENTION OF CHANCE OF FROST IN THE FAR WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE EVENING. THE BIGGER NEWS WILL BE HIGHS STRUGGLING TO TO GET INTO THE 50/S NEAR THE LAKESHORE AND INTO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A LOW TRACKS THROUGH TENNESSEE. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AT BEST. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND HIGH'S SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE SATURDAY FORECAST. BOTH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. TRENDS AFTER THAT ARE CLOSE. WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERY SIMILAR TO PAST SEVERAL DAY. WILL BE PERIODS OF CONVECTION...BUT NO REAL DYNAMICS OR TRIGGER TO POINT TO FOR TIMING. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS MOVES NEXT FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF SLOWER WITH THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLDER AIR WILL SPILL ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SURFACE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO PULL SOME MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND GENERATE CLOUD COVER. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS THAT MOVES ACROSS INLAND TAF SITES AND HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THESE. SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NW OHIO WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER AS THE LOWER END VFR CLOUD COVER ERODES FROM THE WEST IT WILL BE REPLACED BY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TONIGHT BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES ITS INFLUENCE. .OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR A SHORT WHILE LONGER ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE...BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOTERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO THE WEST AND WSW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NE FRINGES OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY AND BRING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND SHIFT EAST OF THE LAKE SUNDAY. OTHER THAN TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAYERS NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MAYERS SHORT TERM...MAYERS LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...MULLEN MARINE...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN