232 FXUS64 KTSA 171300 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 800 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... STRATIFORM RAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND MIDDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM ALONG WHAT IS LIKELY THE TAIL END OF THE OLD PACIFIC FRONT FROM SE/E CNTRL OK UP INTO NW AR. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE THERE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THUS...THE SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. RAIN/STORM CHANCES RAMP BACK UP TONIGHT ACROSS SE OK INTO W CNTRL AR...WITH MORE FLOODING CONCERNS. LACY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA OVERNIGHT AT KFSM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/ DISCUSSION... ONGOING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...BUT WILL TRIM SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE ONGOING LINE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAKER WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP STORMS BELOW THE SEVERITY OF THE PAST 6 HOURS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...OWING TO A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN INCREASE DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISHES ITSELF. ANOTHER UPTICK IS EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS WIND FIELDS BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 87 67 84 58 / 10 10 20 20 FSM 86 68 83 65 / 50 60 40 20 MLC 84 68 83 64 / 20 50 30 20 BVO 86 61 83 54 / 10 10 20 20 FYV 81 65 79 57 / 40 40 40 20 BYV 81 66 80 55 / 30 40 30 20 MKO 85 67 83 59 / 20 30 30 20 MIO 85 66 82 54 / 20 10 20 20 F10 85 67 83 61 / 10 20 30 20 HHW 84 69 83 66 / 60 60 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...30