061 FXUS64 KMAF 100352 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1052 PM CDT Sat May 9 2015 .UPDATE... Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 152 until 3 am CDT. && .DISCUSSION... As of 10/03Z, a Pacific cold front has pushed to the eastern fringe of the forecast area where it is meeting up with a retreating dryline. The atmosphere is moist and very unstable along and east of the dryline with CAPE values conservatively around 3000 J/Kg. Mid level lapse rates are indicated to be around 8C and 0 to 6 km bulk shear 50 to 60kt above the dryline/ front intersection over the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin. There also appears to be a subtle shortwave trough moving toward the Big Bend region on Water Vapor imagery attended by a 110kt h25 jet. Considering all of the above, think thunderstorms will initiate over the eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos in the next couple of hours, conglomerate into a Mesoscale Convective System and move east and northeast into central/ northern Texas overnight. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ANDREWS TX 50 82 52 76 / 10 0 0 0 BIG SPRING TX 54 83 56 75 / 20 10 10 10 CARLSBAD NM 46 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 62 92 62 86 / 30 10 10 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 53 86 55 83 / 10 0 0 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 46 69 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 46 79 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 43 76 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 53 84 54 78 / 10 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 54 84 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 WINK TX 50 84 53 82 / 10 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland Check us out on the internet at: http://weather.gov/midland