586 FXUS63 KGLD 040838 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 238 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015 SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS STARTS OUT COOLER THAN THE NAM FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT BOTH COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR EACH PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO CONFIDENT ON THE FORECAST AREA SEEING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THAT TIME. PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A DIRTY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DOES SO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY STILL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT MOVES INTO PLACE OFF OF VANCOUVER. THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES TROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE COLDFRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THE UPPER SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH A LOW CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEAST COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. THAT LOW CENTER LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND. WITH PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO BE AVAILABLE FROM MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015 THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE TRI STATE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD THIS FEATURE BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW...BUT NOW MODEL TRENDS HAVE THE SYSTEM REMAINING AS AN OPEN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO...NEW TRENDS SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER TILT REMAINING NEUTRAL INSTEAD OF NEGATIVE AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. REGARDLESS...MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT NEEDED TO GET STORMS FIRING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND INFLUENCES THE HIGH PLAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOW 70S...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MAY. MODELS SEEM TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOME DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 OVERALL THINKING FOR STRATUS/FOG REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. HAVE GROWN LESS CONFIDENT MVFR FOG WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD SO HAVE REMOVED FOG MENTION. FORECAST GUIDANCE BECAME MORE OPTIMISTIC TOWARDS CEILINGS SO FEEL THAT IFR CEILINGS ARE UNLIKELY NOW. MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1000-2000 FEET ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. SHORT TERM THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KMCK HAS BECOME THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE. ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NORTH. STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...RRH