954 
FXUS63 KFGF 300844
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GIVEN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY HUMIDITY VALUES (SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW). 

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING TO NEARLY 700MB AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (ANTICIPATE 20-30MPH WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS). TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST AREAS...AND
NEAR 80F JUST AHEAD OF WHERE THE SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED AT PEAK
HEATING (LIKELY THE VALLEY). 

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THERE WILL BE
SHOWERS. 850MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL MOVE INTO THE DVL BASIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING LAGGING BEHIND. AS THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
CATCHES UP WITH AND IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE MESOSCALE FORCING.
GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO...ANTICIPATE ISOLD-SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY. ADJUSTED POPS TO
THIS THINKING...WITH QPF TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND 0.10 INCHES.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH RETURN FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPING. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT A SFC TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. ISOLD-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FEATURE DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. IN ORDER
FOR THIS TO OCCUR MODELS INDICATE DEW POINT VALUES NEAR 50F. NOT
SURE THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ALOFT...BUT DID KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH ON SATURDAY
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY...WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT 
DURING THIS TIME WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. TEMPS WILL 
NOT BE QUITE AS WARM ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING TO 
THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME SHOWERS COULD 
LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER WC MN. 

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. 

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SOUTHERN 
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE 
ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS 
TO BE SEEN HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE IN THE COMING DAYS...THE 
CURRENTLY INDICATED SCENARIO...ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE...WOULD BRING AN INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD 
ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO PARTS OF 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

JUST EXPECT SOME CIRRUS TO DRIFT OVER THE FA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHTER SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND BECOME
GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD APPROACH KDVL BY 00Z FRI AND KGFK
BY 03Z FRI. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY 
RRV WESTWARD. VERY WARM TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED 
WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 20 MPH...AND GUSTING TO OVER 30 
MPH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY. RH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST IN THE 
RRV...DROPPING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT...LOCALLY LOWER. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE RAPID GROWTH OF ANY FIRES THAT START. BY 
MID-AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY 
OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS 
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND 
MOISTURE INCREASES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...GODON
FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI