239 FXUS62 KMHX 240155 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 955 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST CAUSING SE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT W/SW WINDS ELSEWHERE. SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AS 4-5 MB/6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND NMM MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL TONIGHT AS DEEP INLAND LOCATIONS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ON THE OUTER BANKS. LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FOR FROST GIVEN VERY LOW SFC DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOST RECORD LOWS SHUD BE UNATTAINABLE, BUT LISTED IN CLIMO SECTION BLO FOR REFERENCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BUT COOL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA UNDER DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. A BIT BREEZY IN THE MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT BUT DIMINISHING WIND AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOW 60S FOR OBX. THESE MAX TEMPS ARE 5-10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THE DATE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 213 PM THU...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE SHUNTED OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE WET AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM INFLUENCES NC. PW VALUES RUN ABOUT AN INCH AND A QUARTER ON SATURDAY. FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH WAVE DEVELOPING ON IT...AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL KEEP NORTH CAROLINA WET INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. START SEEING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FAVORING GFSENS SOLUTION AS SURFACE SOLUTION FITS BETTER WITH UPPER AIR THAN THE ECMWF. BRIEF RESPITE ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO AREA. BUT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE OFF THE NC COAST WEDNESDAY...AND WILL LINGER THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR A PROLONGED WET PERIOD OVER NORTH CAROLINA. MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70S. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 615 PM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PREVENT ANY VSBY ISSUES OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 216 PM THU...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA. WET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS COMPLEX SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING. SHOULD SEE VFR RETURNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SUBVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 955 PM THURSDAY...WEAK BUBBLE HIGH ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND LEADING TO LIGHT SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH LIGHT S/SSW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. EXPECT A GOOD SURGE OF NW/N WINDS LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 06Z OR SO...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE WITH GFS/NMM SHOWING 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-5 MB. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALREADY ISSUED EARLIER INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 224 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE TRAILING FRONT IS LOCATED. HOWEVER FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY WITH PREDOMINATELY NORTHERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR KINSTON THIS EVENING IF CURRENT PREDICTIONS HOLD. && CLIMATE... RECORD LOWS FOR 04/24: NEW BERN 39/1963 KINSTON 33/1986 GREENVILLE 34/1922 JACKSONVILLE 39/2012 MOREHEAD CITY 37/1986 && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ130- 131-135-150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...CCG AVIATION...CCG/CTC/CQD MARINE...CCG/BTC/CTC HYDROLOGY...BTC CLIMATE...BTC