224 FXUS62 KFFC 211914 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 314 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE OVER NORTH GA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. FEEL A MIX OF THE NAM/GFS IS MORE REALISTIC AS THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP STARTS HITTING THE GROUND. MODELS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT AND THEREFORE TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SEVERE. 17 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HAD TO INCREASE THE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE IS MORE MOIST THAN PREVIOUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...BUT NOWHERE NEAR AS WET AS THE PAST WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL SYSTEM WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN A GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR CONCERNING THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TIMING. STILL...BOTH WOULD INDICATE GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. GFS PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH QUICKLY...ENDING THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER LINGERING BETTER RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. WITH THE CONTINUING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS I HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS. 20 && .AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS...THEN BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS. 17 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 47 77 56 72 / 0 10 30 30 ATLANTA 52 76 56 70 / 0 10 30 30 BLAIRSVILLE 44 68 50 65 / 0 30 30 20 CARTERSVILLE 45 75 54 68 / 0 20 40 30 COLUMBUS 52 80 61 78 / 0 5 20 30 GAINESVILLE 49 72 55 67 / 0 20 40 20 MACON 47 80 56 77 / 0 10 20 30 ROME 44 75 53 67 / 0 30 40 30 PEACHTREE CITY 44 77 55 72 / 0 10 30 30 VIDALIA 54 81 62 80 / 0 10 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...17