698 FXUS65 KBOI 120222 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 822 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED CLOSE TO THE FRONT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE AS FAR WEST AS THE OREGON BORDER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AS THE FRONT PASSES...OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND WIND EXPECTED TO KEEP THE THREAT OF FOG AT A MINIMUM IN THE LONG VALLEY. DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. && .AVIATION...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO BEFORE 06Z. EXPECT PATCHES OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS 08Z-15Z. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST 10- 20 KTS DECREASING TO 5-15 KTS BY 12Z. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 20-30 KTS DECREASING TO 10-20 KTS ON SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE RUNNING 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO DUE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 6-9 DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE BAKER/HARNEY COUNTIES AND MUCH OF FAR SW IDAHO...DUE TO SHOWERS AND A COLD FRONT. TWIN FALLS AND JEROME WERE 1 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER IN SPITE OF GUSTY WINDS 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON RADAR WERE CELLULAR LOOKING FROM BOISE WEST AS OF 245 PM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF BOISE...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. COOLING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY THEN MONDAY WILL BE UP TO 20F DEGREES WARMER AHEAD OF THE NEXT FROPA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTHEN OF THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND WILL REACH SE OREGON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND EXIT SOUTHWEST IDAHO BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING COLD AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET UP TO THE LOW 50S IN THE VALLEY ON TUESDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY/S MAX TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVEL DROP FROM A RANGE OF 6000 TO 9000 FEET BEFOREHAND...TO 3000-4000 FEET AFTERWARD. WARMING AND DRYING TRENDED BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY REACHING NEAR 70 DEGREES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...TL AVIATION.....JT PREV SHORT TERM...VM PREV LONG TERM....JS/DD