905 FXUS66 KOTX 091651 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 950 AM PDT THU APR 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... An upper disturbance will bring a few afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms today, before it moves out late tonight into Friday. A mild southerly flow develops Friday ahead of the next system, pushing temperatures above normal. A vigorous cold front passes Friday night into Saturday morning, with another threat of valley rain and mountain snow and breezy conditions. Saturday remains windy and unsettled, with cooler temperatures. Another strong cold front is expected on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Morning update: We have increased the chance for showers for this afternoon and early evening along across the lower ID Panhandle and far eastern reaches of WA mainly south of Deer Park. An upper-level low remains sprawled along the WA/OR border this morning. visible satellite clearly reveals an axis of lift and moisture ahead of the low which currently stretches from the Camas Prairie...across the Columbia Basin...and into Chelan County. A few light showers or sprinkles were observed near Ephrata tracking west into the Waterville Plateau and East Slopes. Little more than a trace of rainfall are expected with this activity with cloud bases near 8K ft AGL. The stronger lift is associated with the base or cusp of the upper-level trof which is focusing showers from the Blue Mtns to Camas Prairie and into the Palouse of WA/ID. HRRR has been suggesting this will be the area of main activity this afternoon given the better forcing and afternoon heating should destabilize the atmosphere enough to allow a few rumbles of thunder. Clusters of showers associated with this area should slowly drift north toward the Spokane-CDA area late afternoon/early evening and dissipate while reaching the Canadian Border. I have also added isolated thunder near the Cascade Crest of Chelan County. The drier air that worked into the region yesterday remains generally north of Lake Chelan and several RAWS are reported dewpoints in the lower teens. This should keep most precipitation in the form of virga this afternoon. However, south of Lake Chelan, dewpoints are in the lower 30s and convection will have a chance to be a bit deeper bringing the potential for an isolated afternoon storm. /sb && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: An upper low drifts from the Cascades toward the northern Rockies. This feature and afternoon instability will bring increasing clouds and a threat of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon, particularly closer to the ID/WA border eastward and to a lesser extent near the Cascades. Most of the period will be dry, but a hit-and-miss shower may pass over one of the TAF sites, mainly between 21-03Z. These may contain brief downpours, small hail. Some embedded thunderstorms are not out of the question, but will be far from the norm. Otherwise look for VFR conditions. /J. Cote' && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 58 38 62 41 51 32 / 20 30 10 40 30 20 Coeur d'Alene 59 36 62 40 50 31 / 30 30 10 60 50 20 Pullman 53 37 62 42 50 33 / 60 20 10 60 60 20 Lewiston 58 40 67 46 56 36 / 50 20 10 50 30 10 Colville 62 35 62 41 55 29 / 20 10 10 40 60 20 Sandpoint 58 34 60 39 50 30 / 20 20 10 70 70 40 Kellogg 56 34 59 37 45 29 / 30 30 10 70 100 40 Moses Lake 63 37 66 42 59 34 / 10 0 0 20 10 10 Wenatchee 64 42 65 43 56 37 / 10 10 0 20 10 10 Omak 64 35 65 39 58 31 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$