128 FXUS61 KCAR 161730 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1230 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND THE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THRU MID AFTN. 930 AM UPDATE: WE AGAIN XTNDED THE WNTR WX ADV FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SN TIL 21Z. MANY LCTNS WHO RECEIVED SN FROM THE MOST RECENT PAST SN EVENT ARE STILL CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NW WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE...CREATING DANGEROUS WHITEOUTS ON ROADWAYS WITH OPEN TERRAIN. WE ALSO XTNDED THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS AND NW TIL 21Z AS WELL...CANCELLING THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR ZONE 31 WHERE WIND CHILLS HAVE MODERATED WARMER THAN 20 BELOW. OTHERWISE...FCST AFTN HI TEMPS AND HRLY TEMPS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WERE MODIFIED BASED ON RECENT SFC OBS...WHICH INDICATED TEMPS ALREADY NEAR MANY LCTNS...AND EVEN EXCEEDING AT A FEW LCTNS. FCST HI TEMPS WERE RAISED ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEG F FROM THE PREV UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ORGNL DISC: 09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 960MB LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MARITIMES. VERY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA W/SUSTAINED WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. SOME ELEVATED SITES SUCH AS KFVE(FRENCHVILLE) HAD GUSTS TO 50+ MPH OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN GRADUALLY LET UP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWED GUST POTENTIAL TO 50 MPH AGAIN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE(WASHINGTON COUNTY). CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS HIT 40 MPH AT TIMES W/ANOTHER SURGE AS SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW W/TRAVEL BEING HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH OF THIS AND SNOW REMOVAL COULD BE HAMPERED FOR A TIME. RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING WHICH WILL ADD TO THE MIX THIS MORNING. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO END BY MID MORNING AS FORCING WEAKENS W/THE LOW LIFTING N. THE NAM12 AND RAP GUIDANCE WERE DOING A FINE JOB W/THIS SETUP. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TODAY AND AGAIN TONIGHT. WE COULD ACTUALLY BE SEEING WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW'S ASSESSMENT IN THE TEMPERATURES W/SINGLE NUMBERS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA W/THE NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 15 TO 20 BELOW ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD CLIP DOWN EAST MAINE...MAINLY THE COAST WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY BUT AT THIS TIME LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD BUT DRY DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS MOST AREAS. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL COME LATER WEDNESDAY AS A NORLUN TROF TYPE FEATURE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY NIGHTS AND THURSDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A NORLUN TROF TYPE FEATURE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE MAINE MID COAST. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY AND THEN MVFR ESPECIALLY W/VSBYS AND BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. KBGR AND KBHB SHOULD SEE VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. TURBULENCE WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY W/GUSTS HITTING 35-40KT ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR EXPECTED MOST OF WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AFTER COORDINATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO LOWER THE STORM WARNING TO A GALE WARNING. GUST POTENTIAL OF 40-45 KT EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35 KT INTO EARLY TONIGHT. IT DOES LOOK AS THOUGH THE CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO SCA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED RIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THE WARNING WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE WINDS DROP OFF. LOOKS LIKE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 003-004-010. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA