359 FXUS63 KDLH 070406 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1006 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1004 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 UPDATED TO MAKE SOME UPDATES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. LATEST MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...SO HAVE HAD TO PUT IN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY GLAZING FROM THIS AS THERE WONT BE VERY MUCH AND ONLY EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A PERIOD OF GLAZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES THAT EITHER MELTS OR IS COVERED UP BY SLEET OR SNOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA REACHED OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 20Z. CLOUD COVER WAS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE. FATHER TO THE SOUTH...CLEARING WAS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAD ALLOWED THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THERE WAS AN EASTERLY WIND...TEMPS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT 20Z WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO THE WINNIPEG AREA. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 06Z AND DEPART BY 12Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 03Z...REACHING NW WI BY 06Z. THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN SNOW FREE TONIGHT. HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE ARROWHEAD. EXPECT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW IN THIS AREA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ONE HALF TO ONE INCH IN THIS SAME AREA OVERNIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...THE SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WHILE A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A TROF AXIS INTO SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN WI. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES... A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE ONTARIO/MN BORDER BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR. FROM NORTHERN ITASCA COUNTY TO THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2 IN NW WI...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED...WITH A BIT MORE EMPHASIS ON THE SLEET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NO LONGER SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE LEFT OUT THROUGH THE DAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW AND COLD AIR. USED A CONSENSUS FOR THESE AMOUNTS WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 FAIRLY TYPICAL LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES AROUND MID-WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BEST TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...ANY MIXED PRECIP CHANGING TO ALL SNOW WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST SUNDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WHICH COULD LAST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY/TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL END ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL AND RESULT IN SOME CLEARING SKIES. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-5 INCHES OR MORE ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...COLD AIR PLUNGES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AS TEMPS DIVE TO WELL BELOW ZERO. LOWS IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 555 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2015 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING TO DETERIORATE AS YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SATURDAY. SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MOVE INTO MAINLY KINL AND KHIB GENERALLY 02Z- 06Z...THEN LOWER TO IFR FOR 3 TO 6 HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 12Z...BEFORE RETURNING TO AT LEAST MVFR. KDLH COMPLICATED BY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND ARE LIKELY TO HAVE IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SAME PATTERN OF SNOW AND VISIBILITY AS KHIB AND KINL. KBRD LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS 02Z- 06Z. KHYR THE SAME...THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS TO PUSH IN AFTER 11Z AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 12 21 17 22 / 30 50 50 40 INL 7 18 7 18 / 80 80 60 20 BRD 16 28 21 29 / 10 10 10 10 HYR 15 29 22 27 / 10 10 20 10 ASX 12 26 19 22 / 20 30 30 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LE SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...LE