908 FXUS64 KLZK 131744 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1144 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT SHOULD JUST LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETURN ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/ .AVIATION... MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF AR...WHILE VFR OVER NORTHERN AR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME ALL VFR. WIND WILL BE NE AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY. (59) PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM WITH YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...CLOUDS THAT HAVE REMAINED AROUND THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. NORTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TODAY...WITH WINDS STRONGEST ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL TODAY WITH READINGS RUNNING TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THAT WERE SHOWING JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER...AND AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST. ONLY EXPECTING IN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THURSDAY...SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL WARMING TREND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH NEARLY ZONAL TO A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST STARTS DRY WITH MILDER TEMPS...WITH HIGHS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. ON SUNDAY...MORE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AND A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AR. DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...ONLY SOME CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NW TO N SURFACE WIND FLOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS PRESENT WITH THE EURO MODEL HOLDING THE COLD FRONT OVER AR WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT THROUGH AR. THE UPPER PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION. ON MONDAY...INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH THE GFS STALLING THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER AR...WHILE THE EURO HAS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING INTO NORTHERN AR WITH AGAIN LIMITED MOISTURE. THEREFORE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS LOW AFTER SATURDAY. DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER SW AR ON MONDAY...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 33 20 36 22 / 0 0 10 10 CAMDEN AR 41 24 44 27 / 0 0 10 10 HARRISON AR 34 19 38 22 / 0 0 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 39 24 42 26 / 0 0 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 37 24 41 26 / 0 0 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 36 25 42 28 / 0 0 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 39 21 43 23 / 0 0 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 33 20 37 22 / 0 0 10 10 NEWPORT AR 33 21 35 23 / 0 0 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 36 25 40 27 / 0 0 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 38 22 41 24 / 0 0 10 10 SEARCY AR 33 21 37 22 / 0 0 10 10 STUTTGART AR 35 24 38 25 / 0 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...51