384 FXUS61 KRLX 090649 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WINDY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TODAY. DRIER ARCTIC AIR MASS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MILDER AIR ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... LATE NIGHT UPDATED... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AS MIXED DOWN CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO JUMP. HAVE UPDATED TO INCLUDE 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE THOSE GUSTS WITH THE COLD FRONT TOO. HAVE THE FRONT REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z THEN SWEEP THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA 14Z TO 18Z. HAVE POSTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 18Z. THE PREDAWN 50 KNOT 850 JET MAXIMUM PASSING NOW HAS INCREASED GUSTS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ALSO STRONGER GUSTS COULD OCCUR AGAIN NEAR FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS PERIOD WILL SEE A RELAXATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY SUNDAY. WE WILL BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS AND ALLOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE CLOSE IN THE MASS FIELDS. IN THE MEANTIME...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE WITH CONTINUED DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER. LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER BEGINS TO SETTLE IN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT NO RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE LOW APPROACHES...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... POTENTIALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETTING UP IN THE EXTENDED. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL MEAN AN ACTIVE S STREAM DOING BATTLE WITH N STREAM COLD AIR. APPEARS SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE S STREAM WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. A KEY PLAYER WILL BE STRENGTH OF COLD SURFACE HIGH PROGGED TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL BE SUPPLIED FOR THE S STREAM SYSTEMS TO WORK WITH REMAINS IN QUESTION ALONG WITH N EXTENT OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM S STREAM WAVES. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...INCORPORATING SOME DETAIL FROM LATEST ECMWF. ELECTED TO LEAVE OUT OF HWO FOR NOW UNTIL SOME OF THE DETAILS CAN COME INTO BETTER FOCUS. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE GROUND AND CAUSED A MAJOR CHANGE IN OUR WIND FORECAST. DID INCLUDE SOME LLWS AT CRW FOR A FEW HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER WINDS AT SURFACE. HAVE SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. HAVE THE REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH PKB-HTS 12Z TO 14Z...THEN THRU THE WV MOUNTAINS 16 TO 18Z. STILL HAVE THE CEILINGS LOWERING ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT IN LOWLANDS...AND 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS. HAVE THOSE CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND HTS-PKB 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY. SOME IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS AFTER 15Z...BUT TRIED TO KEEP EKN MOSTLY MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY IN SNOW SHOWERS THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 01/09/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H L M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN MIXED PCPN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035>040-046- 047. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30 NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...KTB