589 FXUS63 KFGF 271536 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 936 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 AREA OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE NRN VALLEY SO WILL KEEP POPS/PCPN AS IS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST ON TARGET. UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SNOW WHICH HAS MOVED ACROSS THE HWY 2 CORRIDOR THE LAST 4 HOURS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CWA...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW (LIKELY FLURRIES) FROM THE I 94 CORRIDOR NORTH. WILL CONTINUE FLURRIES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE AREAS DEPICTED ON RADAR AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH UNTIL MORNING SNOW REPORTS COME IN...AS A TENTH OF AN INCH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 SKY COVER AND RELATED TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY SEEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND FILLING IN A BAND OF CLEAR SKIES FROM ABOUT THE RRV TO DEVILS LAKE. THAN NAM12 AND RUC13 MODELS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB DEPICTING THE CLEAR BAND AND USED THOSE MODELS FOR GUIDANCE. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS SOME WEAK VORTICES MOVE ACROSS SRN CANADA. TODAY...LOW CLOUDS TO THE EAST WILL PROGRESS SLOWER THAN THE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND FILL IN THE CLEAR GAP OVER NORTHEASTERN ND BY MID MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW NOW JUST EAST OF MINOT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND AND INTO N CNTRL MN...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS MOVING EAST OF CWA BY 21Z. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS AND ISOLATED SHSN FOR THIS AS WV IS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT ARE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OF FLUFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...AND RATHER SPOTTY IN NATURE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE MORE CHALLENGING AS SAT TRENDS DO NOT GIVE ME A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT THE SRN VALLEY WILL SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN...AND IF IT REMAINS CLEAR COULD BE WARMER THAN FCST HIGHS. TONIGHT...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTH AND THE DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP CLEAR THINGS OUT AT LEAST IN THE NORTH. WILL SEE A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS CWA FROM NW TO SE AS LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE FAR SE COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS WHEREAS THE NW SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AS THE COLD AIRMASS DROPS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY...ARCTIC AIR MASS SINKING SOUTH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOLAR BUT MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER TO ABOVE ZERO TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE EARLY HIGHS AS EARLY MORNING CLOUDS KEEP SAT NIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TEENS PRIOR TO COLDER AIR MAKING IT TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE STEADY TO FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER MT AND DAKOTAS AND MN SHOULD SEE LIGHT NW FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP MON NIGHT LOWS FROM PLUMMETING TOO FAR BUT DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY THE LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WIND CHILLS TO ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH MON AND TUE MORNING. THE COLD APPARENT TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX HAZARD WITHIN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL NOAM EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWS A DISTINCT SHIFT INTO THE EAST AT MIDWEEK AND A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. EXPECT ARCTIC AIRMASS TO MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WED INTO FRI...WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN BY THE WEEK END. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 710 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014 MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN NORTHWEST AND W CNTRL MN...WHILE VFR CIGS MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING THOSE CIGS LOWERING INTO MVFR RANGE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SFC WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND LOWER CIGS OVER SRN MB BEGIN ADVECTING SOUTH. FAR WILL BE CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE VFR DECK ARRIVES IN THE LATE MORNING. DVL/TVF/GFK MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTN...BUT NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HOPKINS SHORT TERM...SPEICHER LONG TERM...GUST/SPEICHER AVIATION...SPEICHER