087 
FXUS63 KILX 260311
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

A tight pressure gradient exists across Illinois between high
pressure centered east of the Appalachians and elongated low
pressure/cold front from SE Colorado to SE Minnesota. Wind gusts
around Peoria reached 30 mph in the last couple hours, with many
areas east of I-55 showing gusts in the 20s. Will bump up the
winds tonight, and tomorrow as we remain in a similar pattern over
the next 24 hours. Cloud cover will be mainly high clouds until
tomorrow afternoon, when a low clouds will develop just ahead of
the cold front and approaching low pressure. Rain showers should
hold off until Friday evening. Low temps tonight look on track in
the mid to upper 30s. Even a thin veil of cirrus can help
stabilize the typical diurnal temperature drop overnight. The
remainder of the short term forecast looks on track. Updated info
will be available shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

High pressure remains in control of the weather for another night as 
southerly winds dominate Central Illinois tonight.  A deep upper 
level trof is digging in over the western half of the CONUS with 
weak ridging over the eastern half in between the exiting low in 
southeastern Canada and the western system.  Southerly winds tonight 
will keep the temps up a bit, which will be key in avoiding fog 
development.  Dewpoints in the low to mid 30s all the way to Central 
Iowa and western MO.  Forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s...so 
saturation  should be limited.  Clear skies will help with some 
radiational cooling, however, and should the winds become lighter 
than forecast in majority of guidance, fog will become a concern.  
For now, leaving the winds up and weather clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

Sun is finally shinning more than a few hours today and with 
southerly winds, temps have risen into the middle to upper 40s this 
afternoon. Similar conditions will be experienced tomorrow as high 
pressure remains in the southeastern US and a weather system 
continues to approach from the west. The southerly winds will also 
bring in more moisture which should combine with the front moving in 
to produce rain across the CWA beginning tomorrow night, and mainly 
after midnight. Moisture and dynamics will be limited, given the 
main track of the associated low pressure centers will be northwest 
and north of the CWA Friday night through Saturday morning. The rain 
will continue through Saturday as the cold front pushes through. As 
colder air filters into the area, the pcpn should change to a mix of 
rain and snow before it ends. This change will begin Sat afternoon 
northwest of the IL river and then quickly move east Sat night. The 
pcpn should end late Sat night with the cold front quickly moving 
to the eastern US. High pressure will begin to build into the 
region Sunday.

Temps will remain warm tomorrow and Sat and then begin to cool some 
for Sunday and Monday.

This high pressure will mild and dry, but a colder 1054mb high press 
area will drop into the area for the rest of the week. This high 
press will bring dry conditions but much colder temps. Highs at 
around and below freezing during the day and lows around the middle 
20s and lower. Hopefully we will see more sun with this upcoming 
high pressure than we have the last several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

During the break between systems, we will see steady southerly winds
at 10-14kt tonight with gusts developing into the 20-22kt range
tomorrow. High clouds will invade tonight ahead of the developing
low pressure in the southern Plains. MVFR clouds are projected to
move into central IL from the WSW tomorrow afternoon. Light rain
ahead of the approaching cold front will hold off until just after
this TAF period, Friday evening. 


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon