936 FXUS65 KABQ 250536 AAB AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1036 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LOWERING OF VFR CIGS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KGUP AND KFMN PRIOR TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT FURTHER DETERIORATION INTO THE IFR CATEGORY IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MST WED DEC 24 2014... .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT...BUT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE STATE BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE ON SATURDAY...MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. && .DISCUSSION... REST OF TODAY WILL REMAIN QUIET BUT COOL. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE TRYING TO ERODE/MELT AWAY THE SNOW ACROSS NE NM. BUT SO FAR...THE SNOW IS SLOW TO GO AWAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...THUS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY DEVELOP...HELPING TO ERODE AWAY THE SNOW FURTHER. THUS...LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NE WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SNOW ON THE GROUND AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING. OVERALL HOWEVER...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT THANKS TO A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IN ADDITION TO THE LEE SIDE TROUGHING. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER THE 4 CORNERS BY 18Z FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO A TROUGH AND SLIDING EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN AND CROSS SOUTHERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL COME THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD RACK UP SOME DECENT SNOW TOTALS. THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES SHOULD DO QUITE WELL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NUDGING UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RESULTANT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST SLOPES TO PICK UP SOME DECENT SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH...IT WILL BECOME A BIT UNSTABLE...WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -1 OR -2. DID NOT INSERT THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRIKES. ANY OF THESE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME QUICK SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID...OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SURROUNDING ZONES. WHILE THE SNOW IS GOING ON ACROSS THE NORTH ON CHRISTMAS...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE QUITE WINDY. 700 MB WINDS AROUND 50-55 KTS AND A DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT MAY YIELD SOME SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY TYPE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE QUIET ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER... THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON FRIDAY. THEN NEARLY ALL AREAS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S. TEMPS WILL TRY TO MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE ON MONDAY. IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MAINLY BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THEY AGREE THAT ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HAVE A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD EASTERLY UPSLOPE EVENT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLD. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NE NM. 34 && .FIRE WEATHER... INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL WIND GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE AND LEAD TO STRONGER HIGHER ELEVATION RIDGETOP WINDS TONIGHT. THIS GRADIENT WILL SEE ADDITIONAL INCREASES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD PACIFIC TROUGH. WHILE GUSTIER SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE... THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR MAINLY MARGINAL BUT POSSIBLY LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PCT. HAINES VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 ALTHOUGH THAT ADJUSTS AS THE DAY GOES ON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO TREND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS. SOME OF THE IMPACTED AREA RECEIVED FRESH SNOWFALL A DAY AGO SO THE CRITICAL THREAT IS LESS. THE WIND FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IS VERY TRICKY. MODELS PROJECT VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS AND MAY BE PICKING UP ON THE CURRENT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THAT BIAS MAY BE TOO BROAD FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS BUT JUST NOT SURE. EITHER WAY...WENT ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THOSE AREAS DESPITE THE VERY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. MODELS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE/COLD FRONT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED WETTING AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID WATER. WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HIGHEST TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION...AND MAINLY SNOW... SHOULD LAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FAVORING THE NORTH. THE ECMWF MODEL REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH OUT OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT. PERHAPS THIS MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AS WELL. VENTILATION TO BE MAINLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. LINGERING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HIGH READINGS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BUT RH READINGS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE WEAK...WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASES IN VENTILATION... THOUGH VALUES REMAIN GOOD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WIND GRADIENT ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE AREA. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO GUSTIER WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE INTO EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PROVIDING A PRETTY SOLID SNOW SET UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WE HAVE SEEN THIS MODEL DEPICTED PATTERN BEFORE BUT THE MODELS EVENTUALLY TREND AWAY FROM THIS PHASING AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT PERIOD. SO WE SHALL SEE. THIS IS A CLIMO PATTERN WE SEE IN LATE DECEMBER FOR BIG SNOWFALL SO THAT IS GOING FOR IT. EITHER WAY...EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED. THE CURRENT PROJECTED PATTERN ALSO BODES WELL FOR HIGHER VENTILATION RATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. 50/05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-512>515. && $$ 33