136 FXUS64 KCRP 172126 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 326 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS LIFTED A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS HAS RESULTED AN ALMOST 20 DEGREE SPREAD FROM THE NW CWA TO THE SE CWA. THIS TROUGH IS PROGD TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THU. FOR NOW THE LIGHT/MOD RAIN HAS SHIFTED N OF THE CWA WITH THE WARM FRONT...HOWEVER KEPT A CHC FOR -RA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NE CWA DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGNCE DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE WEAK BDRY. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF S TX. AM NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG DUE TO THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE BEING 4-5KFT AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG. RAIN CHCS INCREASE ON THU AS ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING FARTHER S APPROACHES W TX...RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER JET ALSO IS PROGD TO SHIFT S THROUGH THE DAY THU. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE WEAK MEANDERING SFC TROUGH...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MOD CONVECTION. KEPT THE CHC POPS FOR ALL OF S TX WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NE. MODELS PROG WEAK CAPE TO DVLP AND DUE TO THE EXPECTED UPPER SUPPORT...AM EXPECTING TSRA'S. SHRA/TSRA'S WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND THE UPPER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO REACH THE NW CWA BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM WL BE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CAPES AROUND 800 J/KG ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE WL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/BRUSH COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 50-60 KT IN THIS RGN ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SFC WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION INITIATED THURSDAY NIGHT MAY TEND TO CONTAMINATE THE AIRMASS AND LOWER THE SVR POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY/SFC WAVE PROXIMITY AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALONG WITH STRONG FORCING FROM THE S/WV ITSELF AND THE RRQ OF AN UPR JET STREAK...THE POTENTIAL WL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AREAS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SPC MARGINAL RISK. WL CONTINUE WITH LKLY/CAT POPS FOR NERN AREAS WITH CHC POPS MOST OTHER AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY CUTOFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A SFC RDG AXIS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. ONSHORE FLOW AND WK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WL PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN AREAS. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO NIL. MORE SEASONABLE DECEMBER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 76 64 73 49 / 10 40 40 40 10 VICTORIA 60 74 62 68 47 / 30 50 70 80 10 LAREDO 58 69 62 72 49 / 10 30 50 20 10 ALICE 62 77 63 74 48 / 10 40 40 40 10 ROCKPORT 62 73 64 72 49 / 20 40 40 50 10 COTULLA 55 69 59 68 46 / 10 30 70 30 10 KINGSVILLE 63 77 64 75 49 / 10 40 30 40 10 NAVY CORPUS 64 73 65 72 51 / 20 40 30 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM MB/80...LONG TERM