543 FXUS64 KCRP 090955 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 355 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/NWP MODEL STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WL MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA TNGT/WEDNESDAY. CONCOMITANT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE GFS INCREASES PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA/MSA TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT PCPN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CWA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 60S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TNGT OWING TO INCREASING MSTR/CLOUDS. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER/PCPN... ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY OWING TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...H5 S/W VORT MAX IS PROG TO SLIDE SE OUT OF LUB CWA WED NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK LLVL ASCENT OCCURRING ACROSS CRP CWA. COMBINATION OF APPROACHING VORT MAX AND WEAK ASCENT...IN ADDITION TO 100 KT H25 JET STREAK OVERHEAD...SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT. VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS S CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WEAKENS...AND WITH UPPER JET STREAK ALSO SHIFTING SOUTH...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS OUR CWA WILL DECREASE. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THEN SHIFTS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SW. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WAA...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW TO VERY LOW BEYOND SATURDAY AS GUIDANCE SUITES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO HAVE POOR HANDLING OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 300 TO 500 MILES FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BUT CONTINUE TO VIOLENTLY SHIFT THE TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH EVERY MODEL RUN. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE STILL AGREES THAT A WIND SHIFT/FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP/DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WITH MAIN STORM TRACK HAVING TRENDED FARTHER NORTH...THIS WOULD KEEP MAIN JET DYNAMICS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT OUT OF OUR REGION AND LIKELY KEEP S TX DRY. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM /WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE CONUS UPPER AIR NETWORK LATE THIS WEEK/ I HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO AVOID MAJOR FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG WAA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND I HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE BY A CATEGORY FOR MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND TOWARDS THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS SUN /TEMPS MAY BE WARMER IF MORE SUNSHINE BECOMES PREVALENT/. ANYTHING GOES REGARDING THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE COOLER TEMPS WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 54 70 59 73 / 10 10 20 10 10 VICTORIA 69 49 66 53 70 / 10 10 20 20 10 LAREDO 67 55 70 60 75 / 10 20 40 20 10 ALICE 69 54 71 58 74 / 10 10 30 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 54 70 58 71 / 10 10 20 10 10 COTULLA 67 55 67 57 74 / 10 20 40 30 10 KINGSVILLE 69 54 72 58 74 / 10 10 20 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 67 55 70 62 72 / 10 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RH/79...LONG TERM