631 FXUS63 KLBF 080941 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 341 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014 AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT THROUGH WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA AND ACROSS NEBRASKA APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM SIOUX CITY TO OGALLALA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MATURE CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA-SOUTH DAKOTA-MINNESOTA TRIPLE POINT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A POTENTIAL VORTICITY INTRUSION THROUGH OREGON-NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014 TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS A FRONT CONTINUES ITS WAY THROUGH NEBRASKA AND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE EAST SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES. STILL...THOUGH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CST MON DEC 8 2014 12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA. A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO RETURN NORTH LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. DEBATED INCLUDING A MENTION OF FOG WITH THIS FORECAST...BUT DECIDED AGAINST AS BUFR SOUNDINGS REFLECT JUST ENOUGH OF A DRY LAYER AT THE SFC FOR UNCERTAINTY. IF FOG WERE TO FORM...THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION WILL BE EAST OF A KIML TO KONL LINE....THIS WOULD INCLUDE KLBF AND MUCH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH SW NEBRASKA. LOW TEMPERATURES WOULD BE IMPACTED BY THE INCREASING STRATUS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A BASIS...BUT ADJUSTED A FEW DEGREES WARMER. THIS SUGGESTS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS OUR EAST...TO THE UPPER 50S OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPER MIXING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES...WHICH SUPPORTS THE WARMER FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY 10C OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS...LOWER TO MID 60S WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE WARM...AND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL AMOUNT OF MIXING/CLOUD COVER...LOWER TO MID 60S /POSSIBLY WARMER/ WOULD BE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY LOOK NON-EXISTENT SAVE FOR A --DZ SIGNAL SHOWN BY THE GFS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY ARE IN QUESTION...AS THE LOWER CEILINGS WOULD GREATLY LIMIT HEATING. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH WITH THOSE HIGHS. CONCERNING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE PLAINS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY FAVORING A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROF...AS THE CONSENSUS PROJECTS A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THUS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SERVE AS A GOOD BASIS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED AS THE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. REGARDLESS...THE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE EVENTUAL CUTOFF NORTH OF BIG BEND...WITH THE LOW SLOWLY MIGRATING EAST ACROSS TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO ALL IN ALL...THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A DUD...WITH NO ADVERSE IMPACTS NOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND IS NOW DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF THE MODELS DECIDE DIFFERENTLY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2014 VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...SPRINGER LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...POWER