462 FXUS64 KLZK 051139 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 535 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014 .AVIATION... AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WILL CREATE IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF AR THIS MORNING. MISTY CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE SEEN. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE RAIN WILL HELP THIN OUT SOME THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...BUT MVFR TO PATCHY IFR AND VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIOD TODAY...AS A SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AR. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 3 TO 7 MPH...THEN BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 6 TO 12 MPH. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. (59) && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2014/ .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SHOWERS FILLED IN ACROSS ERN OKLAHOMA AND NW ARKANSAS AS ADVERTISED OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO NE TEXAS AS WELL. ALL IN ALL THE FORECAST IS TRACKING NICELY. A WARM FRONT WAS STILL LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PUSH NORTHWARD AND SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY MID MORNING. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BUT NOT BY MUCH. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW AND NRN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT PROGRESSION...WITH WARM SECTOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HAVE ISOLD THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AFTER 9AM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS IN CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE. WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SO KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST UNTIL EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH THE LAST AREAS TO SEE RAIN COME TO AN END BEING IN THE SOUTHEAST OF COURSE. THAT SHOULD DO IT FOR RAIN CHANCES DURING THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY...BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE WEAK AND OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM LOW SO HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH A DRY FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT SET TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD BE A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THIS. SAT NIGHT LOWS SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 30S MOST EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER AND STRONG INFLUENCE FROM COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BE CENTERED UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NOT ANYWHERE NEAR ARKANSAS...IT SEEMS UNREASONABLE TO SIDE SOLELY WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE SETS. ADJUSTED TEMPS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT DOWNWARD JUST A TAD BUT STILL CLOSER TO WARMER GUIDANCE THAN COOLER SETS. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH IT GRADUALLY MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND IT WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM IS SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY BUT WEAKENING. THEREFORE AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST WILL BE SEEN FROM TUESDAY TO FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY IS SEEN WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY BUT ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY AGAIN SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE SMALL DETAILS OF THE POSSIBLE RAIN...AND THEREFORE DID NOT ADD MUCH RAIN TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 61 46 53 36 / 100 60 10 0 CAMDEN AR 70 56 61 40 / 100 50 10 0 HARRISON AR 63 43 50 33 / 100 40 10 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 65 51 59 39 / 100 50 10 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 67 51 58 39 / 100 50 10 0 MONTICELLO AR 70 58 61 41 / 100 70 20 0 MOUNT IDA AR 65 48 59 38 / 100 40 10 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 45 50 33 / 100 50 10 0 NEWPORT AR 62 48 53 37 / 100 70 10 0 PINE BLUFF AR 68 54 59 39 / 100 60 10 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 48 58 37 / 100 40 10 0 SEARCY AR 62 47 55 36 / 100 60 10 0 STUTTGART AR 66 51 57 39 / 100 70 10 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS- BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY- DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN- LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK- POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN- WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...59