123 FXAK67 PAJK 261519 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 619 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE SEND COLD CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE YUKON AND SE AK THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE YUKON AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO MISTY FJORDS. A INVERTED TROF FROM A LOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WILL BE OVER THE THE INNER CHANNELS THAT WILL INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...THE LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH MORNING WITH INCREASING DRY COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS TO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS. TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE THAN IT HAS BEEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOW LOWS WILL RANGE FROM TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. AREAS WHERE THE WIND IS BLOWING IT WILL BE WARMER AND COLDER IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. WIND WISE...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE DAY FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST FROM THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE INCREASING CROSS BARRIER FLOW FROM THE EAST. THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TAKU WINDS WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST TO 40 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO BE AROUND 60 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST RANGE WILL SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH GUSTS IN EXPOSED AREAS. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP STRONG WINDS GUSTS OF 45 MPH NEAR THE SKAGWAY,HAINES AND NEAR INTERIOR PASS OF MISTY FJORDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL GENERATE COLD WINDS CHILLS OF 22 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY. && .MARINE...WINDS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GALES TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ALONG WITH AREAS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROF MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OVER NORTHERN LYNN TO STORM FORCE AND SPREAD GALES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE INNER CHANNELS. GUSTS TO 45 KT WILL DEVELOP FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND IN YAKUTAT BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 65 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWELL FROM 10 TO 14 FT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN LYNN CANAL INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM FROM FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS PRODUCED FROM THE STORM AND GALE FORCE WINDS. && .LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC TRACKS TOWARDS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE OUTFLOW WINDS MOVE IN COLD POLAR AIR MASS FROM WESTERN CANADA TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS OVERNIGHT AND LOW TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN DROPPING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS POSSIBLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOCATIONS WITH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW, GAP FLOW AND GRADIENT WINDS WILL SEE WARMER TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING. INDICATIONS THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL FORM IN THE NORTHERN AK GULF SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A CLOSED LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS DEVELOPING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEK THERE IS POTENTIAL OF AN OVER RUNNING SNOW EVENT WHICH WOULD PRODUCE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON. BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY SHOULD BE A STRONGER SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA. INDICATIONS THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT MOVES IN A WARMER AIR MASS AND THIS PRECIP MAY BE MAINLY RAIN. THE STRONG WINDS ARE A RESULT OF TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH. STRONGEST GRADIENT LOOKS TO OCCUR AROUND 15Z THURSDAY THEN WEAKENS AS THE CANADIAN HIGH AND PANHANDLE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. FOR THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND DOUGLAS AREA HE TAKU WINDS THAT BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST MOUNTAIN WAVE MODEL RUNS HAD STRONGER CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 850 MB BUT WERE NOT SHOWING THE TYPICAL 500 MB CRITICAL LEVEL, BUT ARE INDICATIONS OF INDUCED CRITICAL LEVEL. IN ADDITION TO THE EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND GAP WINDS, A NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCED GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE N-S ORIENTATED INNER CHANNELS WITH STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF SUSTAINED STRONG WINDS FROM N LYNN CANAL DOWN TO N CHATHAM STRAIT EXPECT HIGHER SEAS TO DEVELOP. WHILE THE NEWER MODEL RUNS DID INDICATE HIGHER CROSS BARRIER FLOW THERE WERE NOT MANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND FORECAST. CHANGES FOR THE WEEK WERE MINOR. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASED WITH THESE NEXT SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOR THE WEEKEND, AND DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN TO MAKE LARGE CHANGES. GFS SEEMED TO KEEP THE REGION DRIER WHILE THE ECMWF PUSH IN MORE PRECIP BY LATE SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK THEN DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND FROM 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ018-019. STRONG WIND FROM 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-036-051. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-033-035-041>043-053. && $$ ABJ/PRB VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU