624 FXUS64 KMRX 191555 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1050 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. SON SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEY TODAY. THEN...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AREAS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN A FEW CLOUDS...ALSO THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A FEW FLURRIES MAY FALL OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...MOST ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH FOR A DRY AND WARMER NIGHT. LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS GOOD ENOUGH TO YIELD AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MAY BE SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAINLY NORTH IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST AND PASSES BY TO OUR WEST...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AND A SURGE OF COLDER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY...AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SUNDAY AT LEAST IN THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER. WILL HAVE A WARMING TREND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TURNING COLDER TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 30 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 28 45 25 / 0 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 29 46 25 / 0 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 25 43 22 / 0 10 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW