719 FXUS64 KLUB 110935 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 335 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014 .SHORT TERM... COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. LUBBOCK AIRPORT HIT FREEZING AT 119 AM FOR THE OFFICIAL FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WERE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL COUNTIES. WE WILL KEEP THEM OUT OF THE FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THEY COULD STILL BE ADDED. COLD SURFACE RIDGING WILL BRIDGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS VETERAN/S DAY. ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN UNDER 10 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL VERY QUICKLY AND A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. WE WILL EVALUATE THE CURRENT FREEZE WATCH AND ADJUST/UPGRADE FOR ANY COUNTIES THAT DON/T FREEZE THIS MORNING. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS ADVERTISE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT. ALSO...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM... COLD SURFACE RIDGING...COURTESY OF NORTHERN CANADA...WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTER PART OF THE NATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONTINENT AND UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES POINTS FURTHER EASTWARD...WITH SOME FORM OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED QUASI- ZONAL FLOW OVER WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE RIDGING WILL SECURE TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE LOWS BOTTOM OUT AT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COLD DOME OF AIR AT/NEAR THE SURFACE WILL THICKEN THE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT DRY LOW- LEVELS AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER WILL FURTHER LIMIT ANY WARMING DURING THE DAY...THOUGH IT COULD ALSO DAMPENING COOLING A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION BY FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER THINS AS PROGGED. IN ADDITION...THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD...THOUGH IT WILL STILL HOLD PLENTY OF SWAY HERE...AND HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S /WHICH WILL FEEL MILD AFTER ONLY SEEING 20S AND 30S THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS/. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BRING THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE COMING WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND LEE TROUGHING BRINGS A RETURN TO WESTERLY BREEZES TO AT LEAST LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER...THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS LEADING THE WAY TO THE NEXT DUMP OF CANADIAN AIR...WITH THIS FROPA EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. SO...AFTER TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN TO WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF AVERAGE SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AGAIN SUNDAY. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE IS THAT THIS NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED COMPARED TO THE ONE WE ARE NOW IN THE MIDST OF...WITH SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS RETURNING BY MONDAY AND SUPPORTING THE NEXT ITERATION OF A WARMING TREND. REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MEDIUM RANGE NWP IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER GLANCING BLOW OF DPVA ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSULTED THAT PRODUCES QPF LOCALLY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE MINIMAL PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE GRIDS. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO FALL...IT WOULD LIKELY BE ALL LIQUID SATURDAY...BUT WOULD COOL ENOUGH BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING A WINTRY FLAVOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 39 14 26 12 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 TULIA 38 16 26 14 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 40 17 27 15 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 43 20 29 16 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 42 21 30 17 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 45 22 34 17 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 44 22 32 18 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 42 20 32 20 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 SPUR 43 22 30 19 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 45 25 34 20 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ026-032-037>044. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>042. && $$ 33/23