970 FXUS63 KLBF 050509 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1109 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION WITH TROUGH THROUGH MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COUPLED WITH TROUGH INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH OVER GULF OF MEXICO AND UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG HIGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND GULF OF ALASKA LOW. NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MINIMAL AS SUFFICIENT KINEMATIC FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION IS LACKING AND THE TROPOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER DRY. WITH THAT BEING SAID...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN PLAINS DISTURBANCE SLATED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE BRUNT OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE INCREASING DPVA WILL COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR QPF...BUT AGAIN THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WELL WITHIN THE DAKOTAS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SANDHILLS REGION HOWEVER WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND INDICATES GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE SANDHILLS AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE WEAK CAA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED. THE GRADIENT RELAXES BY MID-AFTERNOON...PEAK WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON/T BE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY FAVORED BC DATA WHICH INDICATES LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. THE BC DATA DOES SUGGEST SUB 0C READINGS IN THE FAVORED COLD PRONE DRAINAGES OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE. H925 T/S IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE SFC HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA HIGHS WILL BE COOLER...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 230 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 MID AND LONG TERM MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN DIVERGE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY LOW WILL BRING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE FORECAST EVERY OTHER DAY. RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE WELL SOUTH. MAIN ENERGY WITH WAVES WILL BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WILL BE LIMITED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING DRUG ACROSS THE ROCKIES. IN THE NEAR TERM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WENT TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES 13 TO 15C ADVECT EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS EARLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF COOL FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. FROPA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE PINE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OVER NIGHT WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER LOWS IN THE 30S. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S NORTHEAST TO THE 50S SOUTHWEST. GOOD REBOUND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. BREEZY WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW TO HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND. HIGHS IN THE 60S. MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW AND ONLY A GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014 NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR CEILING ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY 17Z WDNESDAY WIND WILL BECOME NORTHWEST (300-330) 12-14G19-22KT AND INCREASE TO 20-25G28-34KT BY 19Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...POWER SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...POWER AVIATION...SPRINGER