484 FXUS63 KILX 281804 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 104 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Cold front has moved through ILX this morning, with cooler air filtering into the region with northwesterly winds taking over the behind the boundary. Temps not expecting too much of a climb in the NW, but a few degrees still possible as the skies clear and sunshine dominates the remainder of the afternoon. Precip has moved out to the SE and have pulled the pop mention through the rest for the day. Gusty winds expected with an increasing pressure gradient behind the boundary and some 20-25kt winds at 3-4kft on VWP. New zones out momentarily. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms, along and just ahead of the cold front just east of I-55 will continue to move east through the area, while the individual showers move northeast. Precipitation is not in far eastern and southeastern IL yet, but should be by 12z/7am. Models move front/precipitation through and out of the CWA by noon and this looks reasonable given the speed the embedded line of thunderstorms moving eastward through central IL. So, will be issuing forecast with pre-first period to reflect current conditions of precipitation ongoing over most of central IL. Looks like clouds will clear out behind this system, so should be plenty of sunshine this afternoon. As the front moves through the area, winds will become west to northwesterly and continued breezy. For afternoon high temperatures, took a compromise between the MET and MAV guidance. && .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Quiet fall weather on tap during mid week, as 1021 mb high pressure settles southeast into the mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys by dawn Thu. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s with fair skies and west winds diminishing to 5-10 mph during this evening. Highs Wed mostly in the middle 50s over central IL, with upper 50s se of I-70. Lows Wed night of 35-40F and could be some patchy frost as weak high pressure settles into area overnight Wed night with light winds. A northern stream shortwave will race southeast from the northern Plains across MO during Thu afternoon. Isolated light rain showers or sprinkles possible by Thu afternoon and possibly into early Thu evening over eastern IL. Forecast soundings show a fair amount of dry air at lower levels (below 800 mb), so will keep the light rain chances low, at or below 20%. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 50s. Strong upper level trof digs southward over the eastern states late this week while stronger Canadian high pressure of 1034 mb expected to move into IL Saturday. This will usher in an ever colder airmass with the first widespread freeze of the season expected over all of central and southeast Illinois with lows in the upper 20s to near 30F Friday night. A freeze watch will eventually likely be needed overnight Friday night over our CWA. Highs Friday in the upper 40s and lower 50s central IL and mid 50s in southeast IL. Highs Saturday only 45-50F across region. Lows could reach near freezing across eastern IL Saturday night with mid to upper 30s over western IL where return se flow starts sooner on back side of high pressure which moves into the Ohio river valley Sunday. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 50s as temps slowly modify. Extended forecast models show strong upper level trof over the Rockies with upper level ridging into the eastern states early next work week which puts IL in a southwest upper level flow and more unsettled weather returning. A frontal boundary moving near IL Mon-Tue to bring good chance of showers especially Monday night and Tue. Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models advertise heavier qpf moving ne into central IL during Monday night and shifting more into southeast IL Tue. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014 Gusty winds today through the afternoon and winds mostly out of the WNW, though some variability between w and more nwrly early, should settle down as the front continues to pull away to the SE. Clear skies and little else in the forecast to mention...VFR throughout. Later this afternoon, some llvl moisture to the NW may skirt the nrn terminals, mainly PIA and BMI to see some sct low. Tomorrow, time heights and fcst soundings showing enough moisture at the mid levels to account for some cu once daytime heating gets going. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Auten LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...HJS