003 
FXUS64 KMEG 201125
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO 
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO 
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN AHEAD 
THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON 
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND 
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR 
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN 
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD 
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND. 

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG 
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED 
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO 
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR 
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY 
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS 
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME 
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. 

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA 
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS 
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER 
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH 
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE 
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS 
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE 
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED 
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80 
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.  

JCL

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MKL BEING MOST
AFFECTED BY VISBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO <3SM. THESE REDUCTIONS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT MKL...HOWEVER...FOG DISSIPATION WILL
RAPIDLY ENSUE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$