434 FXUS64 KLZK 201018 AAA AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 515 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014 .AVIATION... THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID CLOUDS/SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46) && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH MISSOURI. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND THE MISS RIVER VALLEY...RESIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON THU. THE RESULTING DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THU WITH THE NEXT INCOMING UPPER TROUGH. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WEST OF ARKANSAS BUT THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISHES IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE STATE AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE. JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THANKS TO LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES. && .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE DRIVEN A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE NOTED WITH THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING. THAT WILL LEAVE ARKANSAS IN A CONTINUED DRY WEATHER PATTERN. THROUGH TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT WILL START A WARMING TREND. AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 74 50 73 45 / 20 10 0 0 CAMDEN AR 75 52 80 50 / 10 10 0 0 HARRISON AR 72 48 73 44 / 20 10 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 73 54 77 49 / 20 10 0 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 75 55 77 49 / 20 10 0 0 MONTICELLO AR 74 53 79 50 / 10 10 0 0 MOUNT IDA AR 73 53 77 48 / 20 10 10 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 48 73 44 / 20 10 0 0 NEWPORT AR 74 50 74 46 / 20 10 0 0 PINE BLUFF AR 74 53 77 48 / 10 10 0 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 74 54 77 47 / 20 10 0 0 SEARCY AR 73 51 74 47 / 20 10 0 0 STUTTGART AR 74 53 76 47 / 10 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...46