029 FXUS64 KHGX 161547 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1047 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO GRID CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE GULF AND WARMING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. 42 && .CLIMATE... FOR OCTOBER 1-15... CLL'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 73.9 DEGREES IS 0.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL....AND THEIR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.81 INCHES IS 0.49 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. IAH'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 75.1 DEGREES IS 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEIR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.95 INCHES IS 0.35 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. HOU'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 76.3 DEGREES IS 1.9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEIR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.56 INCHES IS 0.15 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. GLS'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 77.9 DEGREES IS 1.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THEIR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.75 INCHES IS 1.04 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014/ DISCUSSION... NOT AS COOL TONIGHT AS YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 8 DEGREES WARMER NOW THAN THIS TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GULF. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO STARTED THEIR RECOVERY THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAND ANALYSIS OF 850 MB THIS MORNING REVEALED 850 TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BY ANOTHER ONE TO FOUR DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY CAN STILL BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING ROTATING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR HEADING TO THE EAST. ON FRIDAY THIS SHORT WAVE WILL WRAP UP AND MERGE WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT MERGES IT WAS TEMPORARILY PULL SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY WITH 850 WINDS VEERING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING 850 TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 18 - 20 C FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN SPOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ALLOWING 850 TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK DOWN ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STOUT CAP IN PLACE AT 850 MB. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM DEVELOPS RAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE RETURN FLOW. THIS SEEMS TO AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AS CURRENT PWATS ARE AROUND 0.6". THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THANKS TO A POTENT SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE THANKS TO NON EXISTENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (REFLECTED IN OMEGA FIELDS) AND NEAR NORMAL PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 23 MARINE... AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE TX/LA COAST MOVES FURTHER EWD TODAY EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SLY LATER THIS AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT (MAYBE TO NEAR CAUTION CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT). WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO SE TX. E/NE FLOW INCREASES...FETCH LENGTHENS AND SEAS BUILD NEXT WEEK AS PRESSURES FALL IN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL PROBABLY NEED CAUTION AND/OR ADVSY FLAGS BY TUE OR WED OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ELEVATED TIDES. 47 AVIATION... MAY SEE SOME PATCHY & REALLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE FOR SOME OF THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE NON-METRO TERMINALS. SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. DITTO FOR FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 87 61 88 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 87 62 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 84 71 86 71 83 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...38