414 FXUS63 KIWX 100801 AFDIWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 401 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WITH BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S NORTH AND 40S SOUTH WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 THE FRONT HAD MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDED WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT IN A AREA OF WEAK LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE 12KM NAM APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM REASONABLY WELL AND IS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS LIGHT RAIN TOO FAR NORTH OF THE FRONT. A NAM CROSS SECTION DEPICTS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS COOL AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. NOT MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED...THEREFORE...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN AN OPTIMUM NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DIP WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS INTERESTING WITH VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM STILL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND TO THE EASTERN LAKES ON SUNDAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW AND WEAKEN INITIAL LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVE AND THETA E SURGE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS BUT HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING TO AFTER 18Z AND LEFT THE MORNING HOURS DRY. MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES WITH DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. MODELS STILL SHOWING A VERY STRONG 120+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC... DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. AN OPEN GOMEX WILL ALLOW PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES TO MOVE IN SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. GFS40 SHOWING VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WITH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADING TO IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KNOTS WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL PROFILE. SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY AS THIS IS THE TYPICAL SETUP WE SEE FOR OUR SECONDARY FALL SEASON EPISODES OF HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS LEADING TO QLCS STORMS AND LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL CAPES REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG AND TIMING OF FRONT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE LINE NOT IDEAL WITH INDICATIONS IT COULD BE MID TO LATE EVENING OR EVEN OVERNIGHT MONDAY BEFORE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ARRIVES. THUS DETAILS REMAIN MURKY WITH STRONG JET ENERGY STILL OVER THE PACIFIC SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. CERTAINLY WORTHY OF REMAINING AWARE OF POTENTIAL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TIMING ISSUES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND EVENTUAL DRYING CONTINUE ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF LATEST 00Z/10 ECMWF WHICH NOW CLOSES OFF UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THEN RETROGRADES IT WEST. THIS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND VERY STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO SUPERBLEND INIT UNTIL WE SEE A BIT MORE CONTINUITY IN MODELS. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLES DO SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION WHICH MAKES SENSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER SHORT TERM...SKIPPER LONG TERM...LASHLEY AVIATION...SKIPPER VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA