370 FXUS64 KMEG 052312 AAA AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. JCL && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014/ AS OF 3PM...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT WITH READINGS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE 50 DEGREE THRESHOLD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND BACK THROUGH OKLAHOMA. ALOFT...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN VIA WATER VAPOR SATELLITE NEAR NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. IT APPEARS TO BE A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE WORKWEEK. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN PLACE. A MID-LEVEL 50 KT JET STREAK ASSOC WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000-1400 J/KG MLCAPE...250 M^2S^2 0-3 KM SRH...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH GOOD TURNING OF THE HODOGRAPH. THE ONLY REAL LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THE LACK OF BL MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AT LEAST A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THE MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT AS LCL'S WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND WINDS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY BACKED AT THE SURFACE. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO TO NEARLY COINCIDE WITH WHAT SPC'S CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA IS. ..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS KEEPING A HEALTHY CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. BY THURSDAY...MODELS NOW AGREE ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID- SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND KEEP A CHANCE OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH A BLEND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AC3 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE (06/00Z-07/00Z) VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MID-MORNING MONDAY AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS LOWERING IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM IT APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KJBR SO PLACED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP LEAVING KJBR WITH VCTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 4-8 KTS. WINDS MONDAY INCREASING FROM THE SW AND BECOMING GUSTY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT KJBR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA. JCL && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$