504 
FXUS65 KGGW 042026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT SAT OCT 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN CONTINUED EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO ALONG WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY EXTENDING INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA AT TIMES. THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND ALSO ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER AS SHOWERS TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. 

DURING PEAK VERTICAL MIXING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. THIS WILL MAKE NECESSARY THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY AT SOME POINT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING
HOURS. 

ON MONDAY...ECMWF/GFS/AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM ALL SHOW SOME
QPF AGAIN STREAMING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS INTO THE CWA FROM CANADA AND WILL
ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THERE
IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE
GRIDS. DO EXPECT ONLY MINOR TOTALS TO RESULT THOUGH AS THE
ACTIVITY...IF IT DEVELOPS...SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A
HUNDREDTH OR A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MALIAWCO


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGES IN THE 12Z MODELS FROM WHAT WAS DISCUSSED BELOW.
SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT THE CURRENT POPS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ARE
REASONABLE. ONLY TWEAK WAS TO TREND TEMPS...SKY...AND WIND TOWARD
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH
TO THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THEN...THE MODELS DISAGREE WITH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS
BUILDS THE RIDGE ON THE PACIFIC COAST AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
ECMWF WANTS TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INLAND TOWARDS MONTANA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES
OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR.

SYNOPSIS: NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW WILL MAKE
FOR ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
MT...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSDY. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY THANKS TO A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT.

CIGS: MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

VISIBILITY: UNRESTRICTED. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30KTS
DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. GILCHRIST

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW