777 
FXUS63 KFSD 220429
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1129 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

RECEDING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A NIGHT OF CLEAR SKIES WITH 
SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING 
SCATTERED CLOUDS EAST WILL DISSIPATE VERY EARLY. WINDS SHOULD BE 
LIGHT TO CALM INCLUDING OVER THE DECOUPLED WEST AS WEAK SOUTHERLY 
LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO GET STARTED. DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...DO NOT SEE FOG WORTH MENTIONING ON THIS DAY 
BEFORE THE EQUINOX. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT AND VERY SHALLOW FOG TO 
ISOLATED LOW AREAS INCLUDING A FEW SPOTS OVER RELATIVELY WARM 
LAKES/PONDS/RIVERS. GENERAL VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT SUFFER. 
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DECENTLY TO THE 40 TO 45 RANGE.

MONDAY WILL START CLEAR ...THEN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIDDLE 
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE AREA 
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER...AS THIS MORNINGS CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW 
APPROACHES SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. SUPPORT MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY ALL FAR TOO WEAK TO THINK ABOUT ANY SHOWERS EXTREME 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. SUNSHINE WILL RULE EAST OF THE 
JAMES RIVER. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY AT 
THE SURFACE BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 MPH IN SOUTHWEST MN AND 
NORTHWEST IA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A TAD OF WARMING FROM 
TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THE PRIMARY STORY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM FORECAST IS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
TUESDAY...AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY MIDWEEK.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA WILL SLOWLY TRACK 
NORTHEAST...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE 
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD FORM OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH 
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING 
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LIMITED 
INSTABILITY...SO FEEL THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE RELATIVELY LOW. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY SCATTERED ON TUESDAY...AND IT WILL PROVE 
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TEMPERATURES.

RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID-LVL DRY 
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER 
THROUGH THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...GETTING CAUGHT 
UNDER THE LARGER SYNOPTIC RIDGE THAT WILL DEVELOP BY MID-WEEK. 
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BECOME LIMITED AND IN THE END WE SHOULD JUST 
SEE A BIT MORE DIURNAL CLOUD COVER THAN USUAL.  THE BIGGEST STORY 
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE THE PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL...AND WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...MJ