328 FXUS64 KMEG 181506 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1006 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014 .DISCUSSION... SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE. ARS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/ DISCUSSION... THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP. LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S NORTH AND EAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. JAB && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NOTED AROUND 925MB REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTING FROM KJBR AND KMKL THIS MORNING TO KMEM AND KTUP LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG. JLH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$