822 FXUS65 KABQ 181126 AAA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 526 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE SHIFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIMIT SHRA ACTIVITY TO AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KABQ DURING THE DAY TODAY. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST HIGH TERRAIN NEAR KGUP...BUT UNLIKELY WITH BETTER LIFT TOO FAR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF KABQ AND MUCH OF EC NM DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. LONGEST DURATION IMPACT WILL BE AT KROW...WHERE MVFR CIGS AND RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SHRA COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY REDUCING VSBYS. SIMILAR REDUCTIONS IN CIGS POSSIBLE FOR RGV FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUSLY GETTING SHOWERS INTO AREA. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014... .SYNOPSIS... RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD. && .DISCUSSION... ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS. THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY. AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT. 24 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-535>540. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ508-509-520-524-525. && $$