806 FXUS64 KCRP 150914 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 414 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE FCST PD AND AFFECT THE CWA. THE WAVE WL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATER TDA AND THEN BE ALONG THE COAST BY TUE MORNING. THE WAVE WL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY ON TUE. PWATS AVERAGING BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE AXIS. EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DUE TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WL FURTHER AID RAIN CHANCES. DAYTIME HEATING ON TUE WL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WL BOOST POPS TO LKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS ON TUE WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. WL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND STORM MOVEMENT OF AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. THE COMBINATION OF WK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WL MEAN TROPICAL FUNNELS WL LKLY BE AN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH...MAINLY ON TUE. AS FOR TDA...A SMALL WEDGE OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS WE WL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MAIN WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER BY THE AFTN THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION TO WARRANT 20-30% POPS FOR MAINLY ERN AREAS DUE TO LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. RAIN CHANCES WL OF COURSE INCREASE TNT...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE WAVE AXIS NEARS. MORE SUNSHINE TDA DUE TO THIS DRIER AIR WL RESULT IN TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL. THICKER CLOUD CVR AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER AND HIGHS ON TUE SVRL DEGS COOLER THAN TDA. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL DEAL WITH NEARLY DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST/. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BLOSSOM AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA WHERE IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. DEEP MOISTURE IS PROG TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH CONTINUED INTERACTION OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA STREAM...AND THUS CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS FOR THURS/FRI. BY THE WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT H85 RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO TAKE PLACE. AND THEREFORE HAVE MINIMAL POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE GENERALLY GONE BELOW MEX VALUES FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN EXPECTED SCT CONVECTION AND WET SOIL MOISTURE VALUES. MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. NO STRONG SYNOPTIC WIND IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT/DURING THE MORNING BECOMING MORE MODERATE TO GUSTY MOST AFTERNOONS WITH SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. && .MARINE...RAIN CHANCES WL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THIS AFTN AS THE MAIN TROPICAL WAVE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES WL MARKEDLY INCREASE TNT AND TUE MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES INTO THE WATERS. STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 2.4 INCHES WL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS WL BE POSSIBLE TNT INTO TUE GIVEN THE WK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. WINDS WL BE GRADUALLY VEERING FROM NORTHEAST TDA TO SOUTHEAST BY TUE. OVERALL THE WINDS AND SEAS WL REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LVLS THROUGH TUE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 90 76 88 76 89 / 30 30 70 50 50 VICTORIA 91 74 91 75 89 / 20 20 50 30 50 LAREDO 93 75 93 77 94 / 20 20 50 30 40 ALICE 92 74 90 74 90 / 20 20 60 30 50 ROCKPORT 88 77 87 77 89 / 30 40 60 50 50 COTULLA 93 72 93 75 94 / 10 10 40 30 40 KINGSVILLE 91 75 89 77 90 / 30 30 70 40 50 NAVY CORPUS 88 78 87 79 89 / 30 40 70 50 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ MB/80...SHORT TERM RH/79...LONG TERM