823 
FXUS63 KUNR 030839
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
239 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO
WASHINGTON. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WYOMING INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TROF/DRY LINE SURGES THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
850-900MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS. DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND
BEST FORCING NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS. STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. 6-8MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES AND 40-45KT BL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN HALF 
OF THE CONUS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS 
WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY. A 
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS AREA SUNDAY...BUT 
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED.
 
AS A BROAD UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. COULD 
SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RETURNING BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A GRADUAL COOLDOWN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER VARIOUS 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY NW 
WINDS TO THE AREA THRU EARLY THU MRNG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT WED SEP 3 2014

SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TODAY WITH DRY LINE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. DEEP
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR
10 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND SEVERAL HOURS
OF GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7A
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...7B